Allan Lichtman, an American historian, has predicted the winner of every single United States presidential election from 1984 to 2020 correct (except for 2000).
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Keys_to_the_White_House
"When five or fewer of the following statements are false, the incumbent party is predicted to win the election. When six or more are false, the incumbent party is predicted to lose."
(In short: When at least six keys are false, the incumbent party nominee loses the presidential election)
The incumbent party nominee is usually the President. If it's not, due to being term-limited or something, then the incumbent party nominee is the nominee whose party is the same as the President's party.
So far, Biden has 4 keys confirmed to be "True" keys (No primary contest, Incumbent seeking re-election, Major policy change, and Uncharismatic challenger), and 2 keys are "False" keys (Midterm gains and Charismatic incumbent)
Out of the 13 keys, if the "Leans False" keys become "False", and the "Leans true" keys become "True", Biden would still win because, as mentioned before, it takes at least six false keys for the incumbent party candidate to lose.
Here is the text in case you're unable to see the picture attached:
1. Midterm gains: False
2. No primary contest: True
3. Incumbent seeking re-election: False
4. No third party: True
5. Strong short-term economy: True
6. Strong long-term economy: True
7. Major policy change: True
8. No social unrest: True
9. No scandal: True
10. No foreign or military failure: Likely False
11. Major foreign or military success: Undecided
12. Charismatic incumbent: False
13. Uncharismatic challenger: True
Kamala Harris wins, with three certainly false keys and a possible four or five certainly false keys. Either way, Kamala wins (it takes at least six certainly false keys for the incumbent party nominee to be defeated):
