Posts by Kiirin
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Doubtful. They will get a prize, but Daesangs are doubtful.
Reasons,
#1. BTS has released and most probably BP - both fandoms massively outnumber IDLE's, so fan vote aspect is not in their favour.
#2. Judges, have repeatedly shown preference towards internationalists groups (primarily BTS) than domestic success (which BTS also has), particularly MAMA. But GDA is more balanced. So that is also doubtful in their favour.
All they got going for them is charts and data, where again BTS/BP even if behind, won't be that far behind.
It is only Gaon which I think is purely data driven, where they have a better chance. But Gaon is not considered a major award.
Like you cribbing about the 2nd Gen IU curbing new acts, it is possible that 3rd Gen BTS would also be curbing the new acts.
Doesn't matter if both BP and BTS win the fan voting(if there are any this year), GIDLE having already out charted BTS "Yet to Come" 3 days means it's a near-impossible task for them to catch up. As for Blackpink, unless they pull a Dynamite level of domestic and international success and tracking, it's also too late for them. So yes they'll be far behind. Now we'll just have to wait and see how huge "Girls" by Aespa is, but GIDLE got most SOTY daesangs in their bag.
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Royal > Blue Flame > MVSK >>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> TANK