Who do you prefer in US presidential elections: Nate Silver or Allan Lichtman? 1
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Allan Lichtman (1) 100%
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Nate Silver (0) 0%
Allan Lichtman mentioned the difference between him and Nate Silver's model for presidential elections:
Nate Silver's model is based on polling.
Allan Lichtman's model is based on history.
Out of all his predictions on who would be elected President of the United States (which began in 1984), Lichtman predicted 2000 and 2024 incorrectly.
He was wrong in 2000 (he predicted Al Gore would win based on his 13 Keys system) because of improper ballot counting in Florida. No one expected the Supreme Court of the United States to interfere and declare Bush as the winner!
He was wrong again in 2024, and he says that this is because of 3 events that have never happened before:
- the Democrats calling for their incumbent president to drop out of the presidential race after the first presidential debate
- The Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris, not participating in any primaries or caucuses, and
- "a general belief in disinformation during the election cycle being at a very high level"
He said in a later Lichtman Live show that "history changes," which is true.
