Nice. Asa for me, her rap in Batter up is FIRE
Posts by thelightoftruth
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IMO, not right now. Wait until October, or else early next year, Jan or Feb maybe - if the group is 100% ready to go.
Otherwise maybe push it back even one more year. I think people may then be ready for a new big group to hit the scene.
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Yay!! Main slayer things!
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Again you're getting facepalms and reactions like that since they are the only negative ones available here to show I disagree. Also due to things like saying 'gotcha moment' and 'your being daft' etc. It's adding no value to the conversation...
Also, again, I'm not pulling my points out of thin air lol. I've already explain where I'm getting my standpoint from.I already pointed out how industry experts from Kpop correlate album sales to fandom size to ticket sales...I already said it lol...
again long rants? I'm giving detailed replies from my point of view on a forum for discussion...what do you want? Sorry is long post somehow only applicable to people who are pressed or pissed? The content of my post have never left the topic of conversation lol.
At this point it literally doesn't matter, as I said earlier you have your reasons for you opinion on this thread as i have mine and we're not making strong enough arguments one way or another to change each others stand point so why go round and round?
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Whatever makes you sleep mate. This is the difference here, you're immediately on the deference and feeling called out about it. You think this is an argument for whatever reason. I've not been insulting or annoyed with you I haven't called you daft or pretended like you want a gotcha moment.
I'm talking and discussing about the content of the thread and debating points but you seem to think people are pissed or something as if this isn't a place for talking lol.
I mean, you're the one going on these big ol rants and facepalming people
Maybe if you debated the points with actual facts and evidence instead of making up info out of thin air it would be worth an actual discussion.
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Basically...makes thread wondering where are their fans...response..."they dont have any hardcore fans and the ones they do have are jobless children who don't want to see them perform anyway cos they lack skill and have no songs..."
'kay.
The way you've got your knickers in a twist in groups you don't even like. You should give yourself a facepalm bud
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This is going around and around. You're again just bringing it back to means and age and demograph which is all based on nothing. Pulled directly out of thin air...like lets be honest, it is. Groups who have amazing touring also don't just rely on fans. A decent number of sales comes from multis...that seemingly have never heard of 4th gen groups...
I mean regardless of fans demograph being the same or context. Twice, BP, Stray Kids, BTS, etc all have widely varying factors in fandom age, means, location, gender, etc yet dont tour like ass and none of these groups need 101 excuse when it come to selling tickets or people actually finding their fans or general interest in the group.
But hey, I'm a patient man and time will prove the point. It's literally just a matter of waiting and seeing.
Yeah it's going around and around for sure. Your entire argument is based on the fact that 4th gen fans are the same as Twice fans, based on..... nothing and let's be honest, pulled directly out of thin air.
But hey, at least maybe you've learnt something today and after a bit of self reflection will realise you've been getting your knickers in a twist for no reason.
It's good you're patient. In 4 years time if you're proved right you can @ me and have your gotchya moment. If I'm right, then I want you to look in the mirror and tell yourself it's okay to be wrong.
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Literally makes NO sense at all, considering the FACTORS we use to confirm Twices growth like streams, views sales, engagements atc...those other groups are already posting similar numbers and sales beyond Twices....like the fandom is supposed to be already there lol. Where those number coming from, where the sales coming from if not from fans and the wider Kpop market that goes poof when it comes to actually buying tickets? Or finding them irl
It doesn't work exactly like that, don't be daft. There are so many factors and context you just dismiss and ignore because it doesn't fit your narrative.
For example, a 4th gen group selling a million albums across Asia to 14-18 year olds has little relevance to their concert attendance in Brazil that is likely to primarily be attended by people in their 20s. A 15 yo fan doesn't have the same ability to attend concerts as a 26 yo fan.
Just because some of these groups have similar raw numbers to Twice doesn't mean that the context of these numbers is exactly the same.
Over time however, some of this context may change, and therefore potentially lead to increased concert attendance. Just like Twice. Where their fandom demographics changed from a large proportion of Koreans to a large proportion of internationals. Which has resulted in increased attendance overseas.
I don't think I can dumb this down this any further for you, so if you still can't understand I think we'll just have to leave it here and head off on our merry ways.
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So I'm oblivious to my own hypocrisy, yet you go on in this exact post to further reinforcement you own speculations as some kind of fact based reasoning to why Twice has grown in concert size in 5 years....that's the same thing isn't it? Lol. I mean. Come on like be serious.
Also again, conveniently sidestepping several factors and points. Such as A, we aren't talking about stadiums. We are talking about a 2 million seller struggling to shift 50% of tickets to a arena that has had ita actual capacity reduced and has nearly 6 months to the show for ticketing. Were talking about a group struggling to sell even 1/4 of the tickets Twice and BlackPink could sell 5 years ago. Not stadiums and not their 2023/24 touring.
None of your points hold up for that so you are sidestepping it. You continue to compare their number saying 'ow well look at IVE compared to Twice in 2018/19' as if the numbers compare. They don't. Again IVEs whole tour, that they have had to close sections, cancel shows and push back dates is only around 1/4 the size of Twice and BP in 2019 so the comparison makes 0 sense.
Kpop is 10X more global now and these groups from 4th gen have fandoms buying 1.5-2 million albums compared to groups struggling to pass 300-400 K back in that time.
Again, your assumptions are far more wild than mine.
General public and multis buy albums for IVE, Aespa, etc. They won't go to see them because they have small discogs and no performance pedigree, again the same things we early 4th gen Stan's said.
So instead of going back and forth let's simplify it here. What will be different in 2 years time that will make fans and multis buy their tickets that didn't happen for Idle and Itzy when they claimed the same things?
Also what changed for Twice in 5 years? Their fandom grew as did the Kpop market. That's what changed. They went from selling 400k to over 1m an album and their tour reflects that fandom growth. Got nothing to do with whatever BS excuse youre coming up with. The market got bigger and Twice shows grew to reflect that. That's where the confusion is coming from 4th gen groups have fandoms buying millions upon millions of albums and these groups exist within this massive Kpop market now and their numbers are again quarter of top GGs 5 years prior. Doesn't make sense at all.
The only thing that doesn't make sense is your ranting and how you think your spitting facts but don't realise you're also making assumptions about 4th gen's future performance.
You're making assumptions that all 4th gen groups are going to be the same as Itzy or Idle. Maybe they all will, maybe they all won't. Or some either way. Nobody knows, least of all you. Other 4th gen groups don't have the exact same circumstances as those two groups.
The initial question I responded to was
"I ask for what, what specifically is going to make groups who debuted 1-3 years ago sell out that stops them now?"
You've answered it yourself with
Also what changed for Twice in 5 years? Their fandom grew as did the Kpop market.
Now change the name Twice for New Jeans, or Ive, or Lesserafim, or Aespa. You're literally saying the same thing as me except I've given some reasons as to why their fandoms may continue to grow, and in return, potentially result in better future attendance.
It's really not that hard to understand if you exercise half a brain cell. Give it a go bud, instead of frothing at the mouth all the time.
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I've already said on the part of using AKP users as a general feel for the fandom demo' is anecdotal, which you may say is ridiculous, sure. But it's more than what you've actually done. You aren't assuming based on any logic or statistics or evidence, you're basing it on an assumption you've pulled out of nowhere.
Again, regardless of how groups performance is perceived, it makes no bones as you've shown no evidence or anything even hinting at the idea that performance and skill has any correlation to selling tickets. You've just made that point based on your assumptions and used those assumptions to give credibility to the point where it otherwise has none. So it doesn't really bring any logical or evidence based idea to why they can't sell tickets.
Onto the point about 2019 Vs 2024, yeah it's similar but the sales are still worse for IVE and this is more shocking based on a few factors. In 2019 Twice wasn't pushing near 2m album sales per release. Latam was also far far smaller a market 5 years ago. Far less fans existed in Mexico, far less sales and streams came from Latam in 2019 and there was a much smaller general interest in Kpop in 2019 globally as compared to 2024. So even comparing that it's crazy that small venues are being half filled compared to half a decade ago, nevermind today. And that's 1 show, like again IVEs tour is going to be what? 150k, as compared to groups selling 500k tickets 5 years ago.
The reasons aren't making sense. Again Idle and Itzy fans used to say 2-3 years ago, give them time and continually failed to specify a reason as to why they would suddenly become massive touring acts with time and yet here we are and both groups are seasoned vets with big discographies and still remain average level tourers in small venues with reduced capacities and no excuses left.
Do you expect this to change for current groups who struggle right now on say 2 years? Again we're not asking why aren't they selling out massive stadiums or something unfair, it's simply commenting on how badly groups who sell millions of albums and exist at their peak in the biggest global peak of Kpop are cancelling or pushing back shows, closing sections or moving venues so frequently when according to their other metrics they should have big fandoms, album sales have never been an indication of GP interest, they've always been used to indicate fandom support and size and people who know this better than you or me have said as much, hell JYP himself said as much so I'll take his words and 3-4 decades of experience in the Korean music market as a testimony rather than what? Random guesses and assumptions?
Oh lord, the way you're so oblivious to your hypocrisy. Your entire post is also random assumptions that you've made up.
I responded to your hypothetical question with some hypothetical reasons for potential growth. Why are you asking for evidence of something to come in 3 years time? You make no sense at all.
If you want an example of proof however, just take your own faves Twice. They were once dragged as a local group only. Now, just a few years later, they have grown a strong international fandom that surpasses their Korean fandom. In Mexico, 8k attendance in 2019 to 57k attendance in 2024, five years later.
What's changed for them in those 5 years? Oh, surprise surprise, the same things that I mentioned previously.
Why is it so impossible for you to comprehend that other groups may also in the future see growth in their international fandoms as well?
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1st point is speculation. What evidence do you have to provide that shows a qualifier as to what is a hardcore Vs casual and further what evidence do you have to provide that shows casuals fans don't attend concerts. Multis and casual fans have always gone to concerts for Kpop or any music genre.
2nd point, again, Kpop concerts are attending by fans and multis do you have any real world evidence of fandom age? I mean Twice sold 500k tickets in 2019-2020. They were only 4 year old group at that time in a smaller Kpop market. BP did similar numbers and hadn't turned 4 years old. Were all their fans working and over 25 years old. Why would older fans not Stan these newer groups, in anecdotal evidence almost all of the 4th gen fans here are grown and working.
3rd, This might be the case for some groups, but the majority of Kpop fans pretty much already praise 4th gen for their performance and vocals while shitting on groups from 3rd gen. BP has been panned by Kpop fans for years and routinely trashed for their performances, yet they still sell out shows easily. Twice have been considered terrible vocalist since the encore in 2020 to a massive portion of the Kpop market still abuse them to this day, yet several 4th gen groups get heralded as top level singers and performers already. Why isn't that showing any translation to ticket sales yet?
4th point, this was said by early 4th gen groups like Itzy and G Idle who now have fully developed performance skill and fully loaded discographies and they are still struggling to sell big tickets.
5th point, FOMO, maybe if we are talking about Twice and BGs recent mega tours and stadiums sell out shows...but we aren't. Again we are talking about small arenas. We are talking about BP and Twice selling out 500k ticket 4-5 years ago. They were no where near contracts ending. They weren't close to disbanding, why would they have FOMO back in the day. Again no one is expecting SoFi, MetLife, Foro Sol or Nissan stadium, but Kpop groups from 3rd gen have been selling out The Forum since 5+ years ago now it's an impossible task seemingly for groups.
Lmao. I gave some logical reasons as to why attendance could increase in future for 4th gen groups but either way it's all speculation.
1st point, I never said casuals don't attend concerts. A dedicated fan is more likely to attend than a casual though, that's obvious.
2nd point, using AKP's 60 users as an indication of 4th gen fandom demographic is ridiculous.
3rd point you've tied in with the 4th, and you're taking comments made by antis to be gospel truth. BP and Twice have been widely regarded as having some of the best stage presence and performances over the years, at least by their dedicated fans. Don't pretend that NJ, Ive, LSF and Aespa haven't been panned in some way or other about their skills as well.
5th point, I don't really know what you're talking about tbh, but 2019 Twice in Mexico had 8k attendance in the same 20k capacity venue that Ive is going to be in. Meanwhile Ive is currently sitting just over 4k at the moment with 4 months still to go. If we're only comparing 2019 Twice I don't see much difference here.
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Agree with RV, for 2nd gen I think T-ara might take the crown over Fx for me.
With 4th gen, Aespa or LSF imo.
Aespa are most likely going to end up with the most diverse discog and their production is really top notch.
LSF also feel like they can switch it up in a way that I can't really see Ive or NJ doing with as much success.
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One is too hard, but I think it would be this
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