~ Hit Index ~ (Late 2015 Onwards)

  • EVERYONE SAY THANK YOU TO ILL-PRAY-FOR-YOU FOR THE OG POST!!


    Disclaimer: This isn't about how you feel a song did, it's about analyzing the data we do have, from a variety of different angles, to an extent that really hasn't been done. It may surprise you, especially if you're coming in expecting your favs to do better than the data shows. Feeling is subjective, and this is trying to be objective.

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    Update and V2 of the chart: November 18th, 2020.

    Update and V3 of the chart: Nov 18, 2021

    ~~~~~

    On this forum, many of us are always debating what song is a "hit" or how big of a hit a song really is/was. We all have our go to lines like "But this song lasted longer on the charts!" or "this song was #1 for 4 weeks!" etc. In reality, a hit is about a multitude of things, and arguing one limited point is really just one facet that doesn't make much of an impact on its own. So, I created this system that factors in initial impact, impact (short term) longevity, mid-term longevity, long-term longevity, and a tiny bit of achievements related to beating the competition where bias or opinion can't come in (I didn't include anything related to awards, but I did include CAK and PAK which I would say are achievements). Together, it created an index as to a song's overall performance. Overall this index system gives a chance to songs that have super strong starts and weaker finishes (songs like TT for example) and songs that have weak starts but insane longevity (Spring Day for example) the chance to rack up many points.



    I included songs from 2016 onwards (with a couple 2015 songs that charted well into 2016) as that was roughly when streaming started becoming as big as downloads. Any earlier and the streaming figures would put other groups at a big disadvantage.I am NOT including songs early than 2016 (except those that charted into 2016), and I am not including soloists or project groups like Refund Sisters (as the data is harder to find). If you wish to have a song added, you can comment or message me the name and if this thread isn't banned due to trolling, I will include it with an update in a few months. I plan on updating sporadically Some songs that are on this list that are still charting are gaining a couple points a week due to longevity, too.


    In truth, I doubt this will affect any of you. Most of you will still argue that a song is bigger than it is, or that another song really isn't as big as claims, but this is based completely on more than 10 different data figures, and its honestly as good as it's going to get. Please don't troll the thread. :)

    Thank you to the handful of you that sent me data, some of you quite a bit of it.

    Without further ado, here are the numbers. (Methodology below in a spoiler. Please read before you ask questions).



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    Edited 2 times, last by MassiveKpopFan ().

  • Methodology:


    Weeks in the Melon 100: 1 point per week.
    Weeks in the Melon top 10: 5 points per week.
    Weeks at #1 on Melon: 15 points per week.
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    Weeks on the Gaon Digital 100(Main chart only, not domestic): 1 point per week.

    Weeks at #1 on the Gaon Digital 100: 15 points per week.

    Gaon Artist of The Year Monthly Award (for 2020 I used the reliable 5-week averages): 50 points.

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    Achieved a CAK? 10 Points if yes.
    Achieved a PAK? 30 Points if yes.

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    Length of time to achieve 100 million streams: 120 points - # of weeks taken. (1 point if it takes 119 weeks or more).
    + 50 points for every additional 100 million streams.

    Length of time to achieve 2.5 million downloads: 150 points - # of weeks taken. (1 point if it takes 149 weeks or more).
    + 100 points for every additional 2.5 million downloads.

    Downloads generally take groups longer than streams, roughly 30 weeks longer on average. Many groups hit the stream figure but not the downloads figure. Thus the discrepancy to correct the difference for the two.

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    Adjustment Bonuses:

    B-sides receive double points for weeks in the top 10, weeks at number 1, and total weeks in the top 100 (Melon and Gaon). B-sides are defined as something like Dolphin or Forever Young.

    Songs that stayed in the top 50 of the Gaon 100 for 35 weeks or more get a +70 point longevity bonus (I averaged the length of time for all of the songs with longer longevity and if you got more than 34 weeks in the top 50, you were above average).

    For every 40 weeks on the Gaon Digital 100, + 20 points longevity bonus (Again I found above 39 weeks was above average).

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    Add them all together for the final score.

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    Notes:

    This is made to have roughly equal weight of streaming and downloads, both Gaon and Melon. CAK/PAK were included to show the songs were able to beat all their competition at the time. The amount of their points is small to consider for songs that are released during extremely competitive times.

    Reaching mega milestones such as platinum level of streaming or downloads is rare, so I weighted it a bit heavier, and the time it takes to reach them was a factor to show the strength or initial impact and to match the overwhelming impact that massive longevity can have.

    Some of the older songs or less successful songs had data that were more difficult to obtain, so I used seemingly reliable figures, counted weeks myself by hand, or asked someone more knowledgeable and trusted their word. It wouldn't have changed the top half of the chart anyway since it was usually minor and for just a couple songs..

    I'm only human, so a few songs might be off by a point or two. Furthermore, this took weeks, so songs that are still charting might be using data from a week or two ago(so they would have gained like 2 points per week if still charting on both Melon and Gaon).

    I labeled each section, from indisputable hit down to "Not A Flop, But Not A Hit" based on hitting milestone numbers and looking at where the data seemed to change. For example, songs in the bottom category tended to only have 2-3 boxes filled (the rest 0s) and with lower numbers, and songs that had more than 75 points tended to have closer to 3-4 boxes or had higher numbers. Songs in the "hit" category had about half the numbers filled in, songs in huge hits had most to all of them filled in etc. Where the cut-offs actually are is the only thing here that I would say is debatable.

    Here's where I set them:

    Below 25 - Flop
    Below 75 (Not a Hit/Not A Flop)
    75-149 (Minor Hit)
    150-248 (Hit)
    250-399 (Big/Huge Hit)
    400-599 (National Hit)
    600+ (Indisputable National Hit)

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  • Week 1, 2021


    Dingga - 32 (passes Killing Me and Lion)

    Savage Love (Remix) - 63 (passes Bingle Bangle and Toy)

    Life Goes On - 89 (WON Gaon Song of the Year - November [+50] and 5th week in Melon top 10; ties with Time for the Moon Night)

    Lovesick Girls - 143

    Dolphin - 184

    Nonstop - 187

    ON - 237

    How You Like That - 316 (passes Like Ooh-Ahh)

    Dynamite - 555

    Boy with Luv - 618

    Spring Day - 853

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  • The methodology of this is still bad.


    It duplicates stats which are correlated and are reflecting the same underlying features. Important stats like Gallup ranking are missing. It overweights viral hits which die down quickly and downweights longevity too much. And so on. But we already went through this last time.


    (I know this is not your methodology, so nothing personal).

  • The methodology of this is still bad.


    It duplicates stats which are correlated and are reflecting the same underlying features. Important stats like Gallup ranking are missing. It overweights viral hits which die down quickly and downweights longevity too much. And so on. But we already went through this last time.


    (I know this is not your methodology, so nothing personal).

    I think the problem with Gallup is having a methodology which works over the years and seems consistent. They just changed how they display the results and now we can't see what 40+ voted in terms of most idols songs so it's hard to compare with previous years. There is also the recency bias (songs close to the time the polls are taken are advantaged) and the rivality issues (If a song does not have real rivals, it will take a larger percentage than if they would release the song in a bigger year). But I agree that Gallup is important regarding national hits and it's very good to show us the national hits in a small timeframe. National hits isn't just digitals, they are supposed to reach a broader audience than usual and Gallup polls are the best way to show it. For this year, Gallup polls showed us very clearly which are the national hits.


    So yeah I think Gallup should be included as bonuses, and the balance needs to be achieved carefully.

  • Not a comment on whats written, but the font colour used here makes it hard to read lol

  • Could you give me details for Cheer Up and Ddu-du ddu-du.


    Anyway if you ask me, index like this won't work cuz you would need to gather all data like PAK's was it just one or maybe 50, how hard was it to get PAK (number of charts), competition on charts at this time, charting on other charts. Songs released now will have disadvantage in downloads cuz they are dead. What about music shows?


    Going by your methodology Chungha's Bad Boy is bigger hit than KTL and it never charted higher than #36 on Melon real-time chart. Calculations:

    SOTY win = 50 points

    15 weeks in Gaon top100 = 15 points

    16 weeks in Melon top100 = 16 points

    50 + 15 + 16 = 81 points

    and the song will probably get few more weeks in Melon and Gaon top100. Just basing on this one song you can see that SOTY win gives too much points.

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  • I do see your point, I just copied their work so I can continue it, obviously the formula does need work, and up to a certain post, all of the adjustments that need to be made will be mind boggling.

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  • Just realized Spring Day becomes #1 (unless she already was). The Queen is taking her rightful place. :love:

    Lmao at Dynamite, 555 points already. Next week he is gonna be #6, wtf, that's in less than 5 months. :D Insanity. Poor BWL probably gonna be surpassed in a few months.

  • Not a comment on whats written, but the font colour used here makes it hard to read lol

    What color does it look like, because on my screen it's white against a dark gray background.

    It duplicates stats which are correlated and are reflecting the same underlying features. Important stats like Gallup ranking are missing. It overweights viral hits which die down quickly and downweights longevity too much. And so on. But we already went through this last time.

    Which stats are duplicated (besides CAK and PAK)?

    So yeah I think Gallup should be included as bonuses, and the balance needs to be achieved carefully.

    I want this as an addition as well, it makes way more sense than a Gaon SOTY to me.

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  • Week 2, 2021


    Dingga - 34 (ties with BAAM)

    Savage Love (Remix) - 65 (passes More & More)

    Life Goes On - 96 (ties with Black Swan)

    Lovesick Girls - 150

    Dolphin - 188

    Nonstop - 189

    ON - 239

    How You Like That - 318

    Dynamite - 562 (passes TT and DTNA)

    Boy with Luv - 620

    Spring Day - 855

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  • Just realized Spring Day becomes #1 (unless she already was). The Queen is taking her rightful place. :love:

    Lmao at Dynamite, 555 points already. Next week he is gonna be #6, wtf, that's in less than 5 months. :D Insanity. Poor BWL probably gonna be surpassed in a few months.

    You're behind, Spring Day was #1 weeks ago, and I just made this week's update, Dyna is #6 now.

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  • Could you give me details for Cheer Up and Ddu-du ddu-du.

    D4 is actually off, it has 688 points. Cheer Up appears to be correctly calculated.

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  • I do see your point, I just copied their work so I can continue it, obviously the formula does need work, and up to a certain post, all of the adjustments that need to be made will be mind boggling.

    It would take you hundreds of hours to get all data, calculate it and make it fair.


    I would say that minor hit or hit from 2nd part of this year(after reform) wouldn't even be not a hit/not a flop in 2019. That's my opinion.

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  • D4 is actually off, it has 688 points. Cheer Up appears to be correctly calculated.

    How does Cheer Up losing vs D4 in Korea?

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  • I would say that minor hit or hit from 2nd part of this year(after reform) wouldn't even be not a hit/not a flop in 2019. That's my opinion.

    Do you mean a minor hit from 2020 after chart reform is actually a bigger hit than it lets on?

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  • Do you mean a minor hit from 2020 after chart reform is actually a bigger hit than it lets on?

    I mean that the charts are so dead right now that the songs which are in top50 of melon right now would be at near the bottom in 2019 (not all of them).

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  • I mean that the charts are so dead right now that the songs which are in top50 of melon right now would be at near the bottom in 2019 (not all of them).

    In that regard, you're right.

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