Ktown4u Is Not a Reliable Predictor of Actual Sales, so Stop Placing Too Much Emphasis on It

  • I often see users on this forum hyping up Ktown4u sales, a phenomenon that was made very apparent by this recent thread.


    This made me wonder: how well do sales figures on Ktown4u predict actual Gaon sales?


    To find out, I took the sales figures for the top 100 best selling albums on Ktown4u, and then located the corresponding Gaon sales for each one (combining versions if necessary).


    Following, I simply generated a graph that plots Gaon sales for each album against its Ktown4u sales, as shown below:


    Gaon_vs_Ktown.png


    As we can see, the results are all over the place. For example, just look at albums that have sold around 100,000 copies on Ktown4u.


    On one hand, we have Winner's Remember, which sold 97,072 copies on Ktown4u, and then went on to sell only 113,346 copies according to Gaon.


    Compare that to BTS' Love Yourself: Her, which sold only 92,308 on Ktown4u, but has Gaon sales of 2,514,204.


    That is a huge range of Gaon sales for almost the same Ktown4u sales, and there are similar examples of such disparities throughout the data.


    Also, when I tried to fit a trend line to the data points, I got an R2 value of only 0.2, which is quite low. If you're not familiar with R2, it's a statistical value that describes how much of the variation in the dependent variable (Gaon sales) can be predicted by the independent variable (Ktown4u sales).


    In the end, remember that Ktown4u is just one retailer out of thousands where people can purchase their K-pop albums.

  • No surprise with your conclusions. In the end, ktown4u is just one kpop shop out of many.

    It entirely depends on where the fandom prefers to buy. It's even less reliable for any groups/artists whose albums are sold on a company endorsed shop like weverse shop.

  • I agree. Butter single cd becoming the best selling album released in 2021. I don't even know how many it sold in ktown4u. lol.


    They just use ktown4u sales for bragging or achievement purposes.

  • I think, like you said, it's always good to keep in mind that in the end it's all just speculation and rough predicting, even the best analysts aren't right 100% of the times (let alone those who aren't).

    There's simply too many variables involved that can influence the outcome, so focusing on 1-2 metrics for a model is shaky at best.


    That being said, for general, rough speculation and guesswork, there's no problem to use the available data to have some indication.


    For Ktown4u for example, you could use datasets that are close to what you're trying to extrapolate, like former and recent sales of the same group or sibling groups of the same company.


    For example, Wendy had 51k preorders in Ktown4u. Wendy's album 'Like Water' had something like 68k first day sales in hanteo.

    Red Velvet had 155k preorders in Ktown4u for Queendom. Their album had 150k first day sales in hanteo.


    While still a rough guess, you can see that both albums' first day sales are roughly around the Ktown4u preorders.


    This is where it gets interesting:

    Wendy's Like Water had:

    - 1st day hanteo sales: 51k

    - first month Gaon sales: 146k (now: 181k)


    RV's ReVe finale had:

    - 1st day hanteo sales: 30k

    - 1st month Gaon sales: 104k (now: 194k)


    RV's Queendom:

    - 1st day hanteo sales: 150k

    - 1st month Gaon sales: ???


    Will Queendom follow the same pattern and have about 400-450k for 1st month Gaon sales?


    Like said, it's all guesswork and so many variables playing a role.

    For example, if SM wouldn't bother to restock or decided to only restock to up to an additional 100k and no more, then that would be it, that'd be the limit.


    For general indications and rough guesses, it's interesting/entertaining to use available stats like Ktown4u.

    After all, based on the sales increase that the majority of groups experienced since 2019 with a factor of 1.5-3x, it wouldn't be a dangerous bet to say that a group who had their last album released in 2019, would see a significant increase in album sales.


    So if preorders show significant increase compared with a group's last comeback and album, chances are high that this will result in significant increase in album sales too compared with their last album release. Especially if multiple samelike indicators and metrics show a significant increase.

  • To me it seem that u are mad people hype up their faves by using a legit System that don't apply to your fave bc your fandom order from other site


    Why so mad people hype up smith that is legit from a site that is truths worthy

  • Yup. Especially for many hybe acts and/or acts that are on the weverse shop. you can see for example how SVTs ktown4u numbers decreased despite their overall sales increasing once more carats started using the weverse shop and/or when they had better international distribution. E.g. Heng:garae was their first album i think when they were on the weverse shop but carats didn't use it too much immediately. As the fandom got more comfortable with it, you can see the decrease in sales from them on ktown4u. Eg. Heng:garae sold over 500k on ktown4u while Your choice sold around 200k on ktwon4u... despite that... Your Choice has sold more than Heng:garae on Gaon.

    Another example is MOTS:7 and MOTS: Persona not being the best selling albums on ktown4u but has around 2-4 times the amount on Gaon as the best selling albums on Ktown4u.

  • It works best to compare the artist with themselves, not with other artists.

    Yup thats why i took SVT as an example... you can see how their fans moved to ordering more from non-ktown4u shops from Heng:garae to Your Choice. With Your Choice being the album that sold more on Gaon despite selling less than half of Heng:garaes ktwon4u numbers. :thumbup:

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