A Visual Analysis of Girl Group Music Show Wins Throughout All Four Generations (or: How the 4th Generation Really Does Have It Tough)

  • Another possible interpretation is that fans and commentators and the general consensus may have jumped the gun in defining a generational split between 3rd and 4th.

    Indeed. So after I finished this analysis, I was left questioning whether or not the Fourth Generation should truly be classified as such.

    However, there's been some good discussion in this thread, and one thing that struck me in particular was worldlove27 and @citron-icy's assertion that what sets the Fourth Generation apart is its groups' distinct focus on "Western" markets. That's a viewpoint that I hadn't really considered before, but it sort of makes sense.

  • Another thought I had: Back in January I created a thread about how the number of music show wins awarded each year has risen significantly since the start of the Second Generation. Thus, to combat this win "inflation", I've now calculated the *percentage* of annual wins awarded to each girl group generation. The results are shown in the stacked column graph below:


    As we can see, both First and Second Generation girl groups were winning at a very high percentage before dropping off drastically when the next generation took over. Just look at 2005 versus 2006, or 2015 versus 2016.

    However, we have not seen the same dramatic change with the Fourth Generation, which is accumulating wins at a much slower rate. That being said, I do feel like they will take over in the coming years, when Third Generation groups start disbanding.

  • As an addendum to this analysis, I've now graphed the *cumulative* number of wins for each generation:


    If we look at the slopes of the lines, we can see that the Third Generation has been achieving wins at the fastest rate, and so far has shown no signs of slowing down.

  • What the hell happened in 2004?

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