A Thought-Provoking Analysis of Twice Instagram Follower Counts

---===NEW: See here for the latest update (Jihyo overtakes Chaeyoung)===---

Given that it's been two full months since Twice members opened their individual Instagram accounts, I thought it would be fun and instructive to examine some data and trends related to their follower counts.

Thus, I looked up numbers for daily changes in followers from K-Pop Radar and input the figures into a spreadsheet for analysis. Note that K-Pop Radar lacked data for May 17, May 25, and May 26, so I made my own estimates for those days, of course ensuring that they resulted in an overall follower count that matches K-Pop Radar's reported totals.

The first chart I generated shows the daily change in Instagram followers for each member:

TwiceIG_Change.png

After reviewing the chart, I've prepared some questions for consideration:

• What caused the spike in followers for all Twice members around the end of May/start of June?
  • And why were the spikes seemingly staggered, with Chaeyoung and Tzuyu coming noticeably after the initial wave of Nayeon/Momo?
    • Why was Dahyun's boost in followers by far the smallest?
      • Finally, why did only some members experience a negative change in followers after these spikes?
• Tzuyu received a big bump in followers on her birthday (June 14), but Dahyun (May 28) did not. Why?
• Nayeon got a large increase in daily followers after her solo debut, which so far seems to be sustaining itself, but how long will this last?
• All members experienced a noticeable increase in followers on June 22? What happened that day?
• What caused Mina's huge loss of followers on June 28?
• Jihyo gained a visible bump in followers after she posted her infamous "green dress" photo on July 7. Will this entice her to upload similar such photos in the future?

I also created a chart showing the total number of Instagram followers for each member over time:

TwiceIG_Total.png

Here are some further thoughts to consider:

• People often say that Sana is the most popular member, and indeed, she started off with the most followers. However, why did she eventually fall behind in follower count?
• Why does Momo do so well here? She's generally not considered one of the most popular members, a sentiment echoed by AKP members in this poll.
• Thanks to her solo, Nayeon was able to surpass both Tzuyu and Momo and take the lead in follower count. Do you think another member will eventually catch up to her? If so, who?
• I've often heard that Chaeyoung is the least popular member (again, indicated by this AKP poll), yet she does surprisingly well, coming in at 5th place, ahead of Mina even. Why?
• Jeongyeon is also frequently considered the least popular member, and unfortunately, the data support this conclusion. Even more worryingly, the gap between her and the other members only appears to be widening over time. What, if anything, can be done to stop this trend?
• Are these results an accurate measure of global popularity? If not, why not?
• Finally, do you follow all the members? If not, why do you only follow some members? Personally, it would seem to me that a Twice fan would want to follow all of them.

For reference, here are links to each member's Instagram accounts: Nayeon | Jeongyeon | Momo | Sana | Jihyo | Mina | Dahyun | Chaeyoung | Tzuyu

Further Reading on This Topic:

An Analysis of Likes and Comments for Each Twice Member

Jihyo Finally Beats Mina

The 6-Month Update

Momo Passes Nayeon and Takes Back the Lead

The 1-Year Update

Jihyo Finally Beats Chaeyoung

Quote from irenesbadboy

i thought tzuyu was always considered the most popular member, after her it was nayeon, sana, and momo.

I always thought that, although Tzuyu is generally regarded as the member with the best visuals, her popularity isn't as high as it could be given her quiet, reserved personality vis-à-vis someone like Sana.

Quote from irenesbadboy

i can only see tzuyu surpassing her, although i think jihyo could rise to top4.

Based on current trajectories, Tzuyu is probably the best bet; I could see her popularity grow significantly if she's able to nurture a successful acting career. Now Jihyo has a long way to go before she can rise to 4th place; I imagine it'll take a big solo debut for her to get there any time soon.

Quote from irenesbadboy

maybe her going viral with a picture or maybe a big solo activity (like acting in a big drama or solo debut). even then, i think she'll still be the member with one of the least followers. also jeongyeon doesnt really post too often.

Yeah, I think it'd take a successful acting debut. And I did just check, and Jeongyeon does indeed have the fewest number of Instagram posts by far.

Quote from irenesbadboy

kind of? globally, i think momo is a little less popular, chae is less popular (but more popular than jeongyeon and possibly dahyun). tzuyu would be first, and sanayeon would be super close. jihyo would also be more popular.

I think I'd generally agree, though I'm still not sure about Tzuyu being #1. The AKP forum is fairly international I assume, and based on a recent poll, Tzuyu was only the 5th most popular member here.

Quote from irenesbadboy

maybe cause tzuyus one of the most popular and dahyun isnt?

Indeed, but I would have expected at least some bump in follower count. I'm curious what will happen on other members' birthdays coming up.

Quote from irenesbadboy

if shes comfortable with it

Yep I guess we'll see. I will also point out that the "green dress" is now her most liked and most commented post.

Quote from irenesbadboy

yes i do, one of my biggest flexes was that i followed jeongyeon and mina when they had less than 5k followers.

Nice. Now how early did you follow them? Their accounts were made public at 01:30 UTC on May 17.

Quote from supa

There was rumor to be a glitch on Instagram where a lot of people's followers got switched to Chaeyoung, Momo, and Nayeon. It was during the time where the 3 members gained a big amount of unusual followers compared to the other members and there were posts and articles made in Korea where people complain why are they suddenly suddenly following the 3 members when they don't even know who they are or never clicked to follow them. There was a post made on allkpop about that too.

But now I'm curious, why were only Chaeyoung, Momo, and Nayeon called out? After all, from looking at the chart, it's clear that it was actually Tzuyu who gained the most followers during this period.

Quote from NoJamMan

Jeongyeon doesn't post that often she's not into stuff like that even before instagram.

Oh yeah, Jeongyeon clearly has the fewest number of photos posted.

Now by saying "she's not into stuff like that", I'm assuming you mean that she's a more private person who doesn't tend to share as much.

Quote from idontsleep

how sure are we that kpop radar stats are accurate tho?

Fair question. I often see K-Pop Radar referenced during these types of discussions, so I'd just figured that the site is generally considered reliable.

That being said, do you know of another source for Instagram follower data? If so, it might be good to compare numbers between them.

Quote from killthisfenty

Sana ig account is so boring I’m sorry.

Given that Sana is often considered the "brightest" and "bubbliest" member, why do you think her Instagram account could be perceived as "boring"? That is, why doesn't her cheerful personality translate into the photos that she posts.

Quote from OnceMidzy4ever

Tell me. You did all this data listening the Scientists?

I did feel that it was appropriate to listen to Twice music when gathering my data, so I wouldn't be surprised if Scientist appeared in the mix.

Quote from Armedryu

On r/twice reddit polls, Sana comes first followed by Dahyun and then Mina consistently.

Whoa, I'm surprised about Dahyun, since I don't think I've seen any poll where she places that high.

I don't know too much about the Reddit community, but what about that demographic would make them prefer Dahyun?

Quote from Wench

The popularity ranking can vary wildly depending on the country and demographic tbh. ie Momo, Jihyo, and to a lesser extent Chaeyoung thrive among Western female stans because of their baddie/edgier looks. There's truly something for everyone in TWICE lmao

Yeah, I think that's probably right about "Western" preferences. Now I wonder, is there any way to see a breakdown of Instagram followers by country? I'd be curious to see where most of their followers come from. Would it match where Twice's YouTube views come from?

Quote from vzal

The popularity ranking in Twice is pretty consistent. The undisputable top 4 are Tzuyu, Sana, Nayeon and Momo. Mina, Jihyo and Chaeyoung change places depending on comebacks, I think but Mina is probably the fifth most popular of Twice. Jeongyeon and Dahyun are the least popular.

That's in agreement with my previous thoughts on this topic, but then you see something like the Twice Reddit poll, in which Dahyun comes in at 2nd place (only a couple votes behind Sana), while Tzuyu finishes *dead last*.

Quote from vzal

Instagram followers aren't the best thing to measure popularity. Tzuyu has always been the most searched member of Twice and her fancams consistently have good views. She also has the biggest fandom by far. Let's not forget her one and only magazine cover is the second best selling for female idols.

Why do you think Instagram followers would be an inferior indicator of popularity compared to searches or fancam views? It seems like Instagram would be a relatively good measure given that it's widely used and inherently global in nature.

Quote from vzal

Momo is also popular among non fans

Ah, now this begs the question: what about Momo makes her popular among non-fans?

Quote from vzal

Also, despite being the second least followed, Dahyun holds the most liked post on Instagram.

Do we know what made that particular post of Dahyun's the most liked? Is it simply because she's wearing a neat looking dress?

Quote from atropos

For some reason i never knew momo was so popular.

Quote from stan12345

If you ever watch earlier Twice performances abroad, the crowd nearly always go the craziest for Momo

So in a good number of the live performances of Twice I've seen, I can confirm that I was a bit surprised about the strong response that Momo received.

At this point, I almost think that, even though she may not be a lot of people's favourite member, she might be a lot of people's 2nd or 3rd choice.

Quote from QueenMaknae27

My dumbass brain can't take all of these

Quote from ripia

Same like who even has the energy for this.. you gotta pay me to do this lol.

I'm curious, what do you find challenging? To me, this seems like a very straightforward look at the data.

Quote from idontsleep

Best bet would be socialblade but I'm not sure if they were added there.

I just checked, and only Nayeon has been added unfortunately. And even then, it looks like I have to pay for a subscription to see a history of daily follower changes.

Quote from divakimkey

I think you might find this interesting as you seem to like stats. There's also a detailed breakdown in the comments (it's the second comment when you sort the comments by "Top").

https://www.reddit.com/r/twice…ey_2021_results/?sort=top

Thanks for the link! Now what's even more surprising than Dahyun coming in 2nd is Tzuyu finishing in last place. I would think that her visuals alone would've prevented such a thing from happening. So what is it about the Reddit demographic that would make them vote (arguably) the most popular member worldwide as their least favourite?

Quote from vzal

Maybe there are more Dahyun stans on that site?

Apparently there must be, but why? From what I've heard, Reddit users are predominantly male, and heavily based in the US. However, it's not clear to me how those two demographic factors would result in a preference for Dahyun.

Quote from vzal

Isn't Google more global than Instagram? Idk, I don't think it's inferior but it also isn't the best.

What makes me a bit wary about search is the ambiguity inherent in search terms. For example, if I perform a Google query for "Momo", how does one know if I'm actually looking for the Twice member or the Japanese word for "peach"? On the other hand, "Tzuyu" pretty much unambiguously refers to the Twice member. Also, I've heard of fandoms spamming search results by constantly searching for their favourites.

Quote from vzal

Her dance? She is considered one of the best female dancers and is always praised for her stage presence.

Yeah, I was actually thinking about this today, and the dance aspect is what came to mind, since not too many idols can legitimately claim to be one of the best in the business.

Quote from vzal

I honestly don't know lol. Dahyun has more male fans than female fans from what I have seen.

I was reading through the Reddit thread talking about the poll, and it seems that people think Tzuyu ranked low because she's the quietest, most reserved member, and that doesn't fit in well with "Western" ideals, which tend to prefer more outgoing individuals.

Quote from vzal

Searches can be manipulated, yes but they show interest too. Whoever has the most popularity will end up with the most searches.

Yeah, I would generally agree, though "interest" is not necessarily a good thing. For example, Garam brings in more searches than Sakura or Kazuha, but my guess is that she's not the most favoured member of Le Sserafim.

Quote from vzal

Honestly, I doubt anyone is jobless enough to mass search their faves.

I don't know about that. After all, we've all heard stories about people using dozens of cell phones to mass stream music from their favourites. Never doubt the dedication of K-pop fandoms haha.

Quote from supa

There was rumor to be a glitch on Instagram where a lot of people's followers got switched to Chaeyoung, Momo, and Nayeon. It was during the time where the 3 members gained a big amount of unusual followers compared to the other members and there were posts and articles made in Korea where people complain why are they suddenly suddenly following the 3 members when they don't even know who they are or never clicked to follow them. There was a post made on allkpop about that too.

I believe this is the AKP news post that you're referring to about the possible glitch on Instagram.

And there's also this thread, where it was claimed that Nayeon, Momo, and Jeongyeon had bought Instagram followers.

As an addendum to my original post, I decided to examine like and comment statistics for each member. The data were collected at around 18:00 UTC on July 20.

First up, let's just simply take a look at the number of posts per member:

Nayeon – 35 posts

Jihyo – 26 posts

Sana – 23 posts

Momo – 21 posts

Dahyun – 21 posts

Chaeyoung – 14 posts

Tzuyu – 14 posts

Mina – 13 posts

Jeongyeon – 6 posts

This is a pretty large disparity, especially since the members have only had accounts for two months. I guess Jeongyeon really doesn't like sharing too much. Similarly, Mina and Tzuyu, who are often considered the most reserved members, also have low post counts.

Next, we'll examine the average (mean) number of likes received per post. Note that video posts were not included, since the number of likes is not shown for them:

Momo – 2,598,705 likes

Tzuyu – 2,374,313 likes

Jihyo – 2,158,166 likes

Mina – 2,148,421 likes

Sana – 2,092,527 likes

Nayeon – 2,092,288 likes

Chaeyoung – 2,067,750 likes

Jeongyeon – 2,026,076 likes

Dahyun – 1,872,015 likes

So vzal, it looks like you were right about Momo getting the most likes, but Chaeyoung is actually fairly low on the ranking.

And here's the ranking by average (mean) number of comments per post. Again, videos were exluded:

Tzuyu – 24,443 comments

Jeongyeon – 21,688 comments

Mina – 18,873 comments

Momo – 17,831 comments

Jihyo – 15,370 comments

Chaeyoung – 15,268 comments

Sana – 14,867 comments

Dahyun – 12,159 comments

Nayeon – 10,405 comments

So what's surprising to me is how poorly Nayeon does here; my guess is that she posts a lot, so it's more difficult for commenters to keep up. Jeongyeon, on the other hand, does unexpectedly well, probably because she has so few posts to be commented on.

Finally, the most liked photo is Dahyun in her fluffy blue dress:

While the most commented photo is Jihyo in her infamous green dress:

A quick update: As shown in the chart below, Jihyo has finally surpassed Mina in followers. As of August 19th, the counts are 6,380,364 versus 6,378,924.

TwiceIG_Total_JihyoMina.png

Jihyo has steadily been closing the gap in followers between her and Mina, right from the start.

Given that Mina is generally considered to be the more popular member, how was she able to do this? My hypothesis is that Jihyo simply posts more often, and her posts are, on average, a bit more provocative.

Since the Twice members have had their Instagram accounts open for a full six months now, I've decided to provide an update on their follower counts:

TwiceIG_Change_2022-11-16.png

TwiceIG_Total_2022-11-16.png

Some comments:

• Nayeon's increase in the rate of daily follower additions from her solo debut fizzled out by the end of July, and further slowed starting in mid-October.
• Most members received a spike in followers around August 17th, when the first Between 1&2 teaser photos were released.
• All members received a bump in followers during the "Talk That Talk" comeback (August 26th).
• Dahyun may have gotten a boost in followers as a result of her "Money" scandal (September 16th).
• Sana got a bump in followers from her appearance at the Prada fashion show in Milan (September 22nd).
• On the other hand, Chaeyoung didn't seem to get any boost following her appearance at the Ferragamo show in Milan (September 25th).
• Momo started gaining followers at a noticeably higher rate starting in October. Why? This is the observation that I'm most curious about.

Is there anything else that you notice in the data?